Grid/Li-ion Battery Recycling: Industry Overviews

November 15, 2023

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TL;DR

The clean-tech sector is entering a major growth inflection, driven by electrification, climate stress on legacy infrastructure, and demand for circular materials.

Two sub-verticals stand out: grid optimization / battery arbitrage software and Li-ion battery recycling / materials recovery.

On the grid side, the biggest leverage is in applying AI / ML to optimize charge/discharge decisions, bidding strategies, and integrating storage assets in volatile markets.

On the recycling side, the tailwinds are converging: a looming lithium / critical minerals deficit, retiring battery supply, regulatory incentives (e.g. U.S. tax credits for recycled content), and room for innovation in process technologies (hydro, plasma, mechanochemical).

In 2023, I argued that while grid-tech is nascent, the more compelling near-term opportunity is in battery recycling, where structural demand and technology differentiation are more visible.

Key risks remain: adoption lag, capital intensity of processing plants, logistics / collection challenges, and potential disruption from alternative battery chemistries.

This remains a strong thematic bet heading into the rest of the decade - you want optionality across both domains, but placing more weight (and capital) on recycling / materials startups is defensible.

Traction Updates